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Appraiser Roger Miller last Wednesday at the MLS breakfast and Avram Goldman today (in an Inman News release) pointed out the historic positive correlations between a NFC Super Bowl win (compared with AFC win) and a positive movement in the S&P 500. Â
I am not a big football fan, but apparently if you go all the way back to 1967, when the NFC won, the S&P 500 was positive more often than negative (86% versus 63% of the time when the AFC won). Also there has been above-average market performance with a NFC Super Bowl win (up 16.4% vs. up 7.1% with a AFC win).From a team perspective, when the Giants have won, the results have been more favorable than when the Patriots have won. In the Giants’ two previous wins (1987 and 1991), the S&P rallied 17.8% on average. When the Patriots won (2002, 2004 and 2005) the market was down 2.1% on average. Therefore, since the Giants won, this is a good thing.
From college I remember this to be the logical fallacy “post hoc, ergo propter hoc” – this, therefore, because of that. Fun and curious, but not the data I would wish to base a decision whether to buy or sell real estate.
As amusing as this might be, there is some value in following the movement of the NASDAQ, which has been down 9.7% since the first of the year. A downward movement in the stock market often effects the amount of cash available for purchasers of luxury homes ($2 million+ in the South Bay area).
If you want good, hard data on what is actually happening to the local market you need to look at absorption rates by price range vs. the amount of inventory. Another indicator of a “buyers” or “sellers” market is the ratio of currently open escrows to total inventory available.
If you are thinking about selling, ask your Realtor what is happening now? Who is my potential buyer? What is my best pricing strategy to get the highest possible price? Call Rick Bonetti at 408-857-8800 for the data and recommendations regarding your home before you decide to sell.